A Deadly Contagion: The Risk of Copycat Terrorism
Published in The Psychologist: March 2005 vol 18 no. 3.
PAUL MARSDEN and SHARON ATTIA on the
psychology of suicide bombing and the role of the media.
EXPLOSIVES strapped to his waist,
Hussam Abdo faced the Israeli soldiers, and the camera. The
Palestinian teenager had just become a global media
celebrity: the ‘Boy Bomber’ of Nablus (see tinyurl.com/4k8pt).
Although security forces ultimately
thwarted Hussam’s attack, this sensational ‘reality
television’ still made for compulsive viewing. ‘Terrorism is
theatre’ wrote the political scientist Brian Jenkins, and as
the story made headlines around the world, the shock value
of the story was undeniable and reminiscent of the 2002
media circus surrounding photos of a baby dressed in suicide
bomber gear. Hordes of journalists descended upon Hussam’s
family home, all jostling for soundbites on what had
motivated him. But should they have been taking a look at
themselves?
Some myths
More suicide attacks have taken place
in the last three years than in the previous quarter century
(Atran, 2004); 2003 saw more suicide attacks than ever
recorded before; and the World Trade Center disaster of 2001
has become paradigmatic of a deadly trend that now has
global relevance and global reach. Suicide bombing is indeed
a newsworthy topic. Media explanations for suicide bombing
have tended to portray bombers as mentally unstable and
religiously motivated. For example, much was made of the
alleged facts that Hussam Abdo was mentally retarded and
that his religion promised him sex with 72 virgins if he
were to become a shahid (religious martyr). But beyond
soundbite and spin these portrayals have little value.
Profiling research based on video testaments, interviews
with family and friends, and with suicide bombers who
survive, show most suicide bombers to be psychologically
normal (Silke, 2003). There is no evidence to suggest that
suicide bombers suffer from personality disorders or
psychiatric conditions.
Likewise, the idea that the cause of
suicide bombing is religious fanaticism does not stack up
with the data; many groups adopting suicide-bombing tactics,
including those in the Middle East, are entirely secular.
Specifically, the idea that Islamist belief is the root
cause of suicide bombing is false; the majority of suicide
bombings in the last two decades of the 20th century were
conducted by the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka, from a
predominantly Hindu culture (Pape, 2003).
Equally disingenuous is the portrayal
of suicide bombers as typically young single men,
disenfranchised, unemployed and uneducated. Suicide bombers
can be men or women aged anywhere between early teens to
late forties, religious or secular, unemployed or employed,
destitute or privileged, educated or uneducated, married or
single, socially isolated or socially integrated (Pape,
2003).
Another favourite media explanation is
that suicide bombers, particularly the young, are somehow
brainwashed or coerced into such attacks. However, virtually
all would-be suicide bombers are volunteers. The problem
today for groups employing suicide attacks is not
recruitment, it is managing the over-supply of volunteers (Hassan,
2001). A recent survey of schoolchildren in Gaza found that
70 per cent wished to become a shahid in a martyr operation.
Iyad Sarraj, psychiatrist and director of the Gaza Community
Mental Health Programme, concludes: ‘If you ask a little
child in Gaza today what he wants to be, he doesn’t say
doctor or engineer, or businessman. He says he wants to be a
martyr’ (Hawley, 2002).
A low-cost, high-return strategy?
Whilst we tend to attribute extreme
behaviour to extreme personalities, scientific evidence
suggests that this is often more a reflection of our own
psychology than it is of those we label. It is, as
psychologists are prone to say, a ‘fundamental attribution
error’. In fact, research consistently shows that the causal
locus of behaviour often lies more in the external context
and group environment than it does in our heads – we are
‘contextual chameleons’, ever changing our behaviour to fit
the contexts and groups within which we find ourselves. Just
as laboratory experiments show people will behave violently
when placed in violent contexts and violent groups, a number
of researchers now suggest that the causes of suicide
bombing lie less in the mind and more in the pathological
contexts and groups within which it takes place (Atran,
2003; Silke, 2003).
When we abandon the idea of suicide
bombers as mentally ill individuals acting out individual
death wishes, and see suicide bombing as a coordinated
community response that fits a context of violence,
aggression and revenge, then much of the incomprehensibility
of suicide bombing dissolves. It is groups, not lone
individuals that plan, organise, manage and execute suicide
bombing (Merari, 2000), and when understood from a
contextualised group perspective, suicide bombing can appear
a rational and fitting response to perceived persecution,
abuse and killing at the hands of an enemy. It is a highly
adaptable low-cost, high-return technique of asymmetric
warfare. It creates massive media publicity that can coerce
and impress; its adoption as a strategy has been associated
with the successful furtherance of political aims (Pape,
2003); it is cost-effective in terms of human cost of
operatives killed and the cost of the bomb (typically about
$50); it is efficient in inflicting a far higher ratio of
enemy deaths per bomb than other forms of attack, and
efficient in minimising the risk of operative capture and
subsequent loss of intelligence.
Given this contextualised group-level
rationale for suicide bombing, it is therefore not
surprising that groups have emerged dedicated to recruiting,
training, coordinating and carrying out suicide attacks.
Only by understanding these groups and the contexts out of
which they emerge will we begin to manage the threat of
suicide bombing.
Media contagion
One small aspect of the contextual mix
that might contribute to the wave of suicide attacks is mass
media publicity (Nacos, 2002). Specifically, positive media
coverage of suicide bombing in areas of recruitment may act
as effective advertising campaigns for volunteers, whilst
negative publicity may nevertheless encourage suicide
bombing because it still gives bombers precisely what they
want – media attention. This is not to say that the media
can cause suicide bombing any more than sex (as opposed to
HIV) can cause AIDS; it is at most a vector of transmission
that can precipitate its spread.
The idea that mass media coverage can
precipitate the spread of certain kind of behaviour is known
as media contagion (Gould et al., 2003). The everyday fact
of media contagion is demonstrated by the economics of
commercial mass media, which is predicated upon it: most of
what we read, see and hear in the media is financed by
advertising, and would not exist if media advertising was
not effective in precipitating the spread of buying
behaviour. From a cognitive perspective, it’s not so much
that media publicity exerts any kind of mechanistic
influence on us, but that it provides us with selective
information that we then use to help solve problems and make
decisions. In other words, the media’s influence is derived
from its role in informational gatekeeping and
agenda-setting. Could media contagion be implicated in the
spread of suicide bombing? The role of the media in
terrorism is politically controversial and much debated
(Crenshaw, 1998; Nacos, 1994; Norris et al., 2003; Paletz &
Schmid, 1992). Whilst some researchers, using a time series
analysis of correlations between media portrayals of
violence and violent crime rates, have found a measurable
link between media publicity devoted to terrorism and
terrorist attacks (e.g. Phillips, 1983), others have not
(e.g. Baron & Reiss. 1985). However, we do know from general
research on media influence that media violence does appear
to play a role in the spread of violent behaviour (Anderson
et al., 2003). For example, the statistical link between
media violence and violent behaviour has been found to be
stronger than that between calcium intake and bone mass, and
between asbestos exposure and cancer (Hurley, 2004), with
such a link being particularly strong in young people. We
also know that media contagion is particularly implicated in
suicide; high-profile suicide stories in the media are
regularly followed by a jump of up to 10 per cent in suicide
levels (Stack, 2000). Even fictional suicide stories in the
media can produce this copycat effect; when a recent
television hospital drama series featured a paracetamol
overdose, hospital admissions for paracetamol overdoses
jumped by 17 per cent (Hawton et al., 1999). The risk of
media contagion is so strong that the World Health
Organization and the US Centers for Disease Control have
issued media guidelines for covering suicide stories, based
on the psychology of imitation (see tinyurl.com/6s8so and
tinyurl.com/5r2gc).Finally, we know that media publicity is
an overt goal of suicide bombing; the primary targets of
suicide-bombing attacks are not those who are injured but
those who are made to witness it through media coverage (Atran,
2003). So given that suicide bombing is a form of violent
coercion that uses symbolic targets, surprise and resulting
media publicity to compensate for relative weakness in
destructive power, media coverage is an important metric of
success. If media amplification is a goal and a measure of
victory for suicide bombing, then it is logical that
extensive media coverage may encourage groups to continue
employing suicide-bombing tactics.
Broken windows
Of course, just because violent
behaviour and suicide can be subject to media contagion, and
just because there is a logical group-level rationale why
media coverage of suicide attacks should precipitate further
attacks, it does not mean that media contagion is
necessarily implicated in the spread of suicide bombing. The
psychology of individual acts of suicide and violence may be
very different from the coordinated and planned group
behaviour involved in suicide attacks, and the group
motivation for media publicity may turn out to be
insignificant. Furthermore, there is no evidence to suggest
that media reporting could ever play any more than a small
superficial, precipitating role in the spread of suicide
bombing; it is certainly not an underlying cause. So why
waste time worrying about what is at most a single broken
window in a metaphorical building that urgently needs
structural repair?
The simple answer is that the media is
one part of the overall context of suicide bombing that we
can immediately do something about, if we choose to do so.
The media are a window on suicide bombing that can distort
and sensationalise, and in doing so possibly precipitate the
spread of such attacks. Whilst more long-term structural
work on changing the contexts that produce suicide bombing
is under way, we could choose to fix this broken window.
Specifically, we could establish a general set of media
guidelines for reporting suicide bombing in the mass media
that could be implemented wherever there is the political
will to do so. A number of media producers, including the
BBC and CBS, have already implemented internal
recommendations for reporting terrorism in general
(Wilkinson, 1997), but currently there are no generally
agreed-upon and theoretically informed guidelines
specifically for media coverage of suicide attacks. One
possible option here could be to extend the accepted media
guidelines for reporting incidents involving suicide to
cover suicide bombing (see box).

These simple recommendations have already proved to be effective
in reducing the risk of media contagion. For example, when
implemented during a spate of heavily publicised subway-suicide
deaths in Vienna, subway suicides dropped by 80 per cent (Etzersdorfer
& Sonneck, 1998). Of course, they have yet to demonstrate
efficacy in suicide bombing, and given today’s fragmented but
globalised and politicised media it would be naive to believe
that they would be universally applied. However, given the
current epidemic of suicide attacks and the potential risk of
media contagion, perhaps there is a case for promoting and
trialling them where there is political or editorial
condemnation of such attacks. In the end, structural problems
need structural solutions, but there is also something to be
said for fixing broken windows. It is possible that small
changes to the environment can make big differences to behaviour.
Just as the cosmetic cleaning up of the New York subway seemed
to produce a precipitous drop in city crime in the 1990s
(Gladwell, 2000), maybe fixing the broken window through which
we see a distorted and sensationalised world could be a useful
first step in managing the threat of suicide bombing.
Paul Marsden and Sharon Attia are in the
Institute of Social Psychology at the London School of
Economics.
E-mail: p.s.marsden@lse.ac.uk and
S.Attia@lse.ac.uk
Back to Published Work
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Dr Paul Marsden is a research psychologist
at the London School of Economics
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